Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.339858 0.385052 0.434090 0.491269 0.556132 0.627455 0.711874
2025-10-12 0.273788 0.333726 0.403688 0.491448 0.598702 0.725669 0.887630
2025-10-19 0.228016 0.296799 0.382531 0.497395 0.647553 0.837595 1.097078
2025-10-26 0.195668 0.270599 0.369828 0.511140 0.707781 0.972605 1.357875
2025-11-02 0.160369 0.234509 0.338327 0.494753 0.725388 1.054416 1.562192
2025-11-09 0.130568 0.201052 0.304990 0.470017 0.726788 1.113312 1.743632
2025-11-16 0.110654 0.178820 0.284327 0.460281 0.748254 1.204216 1.987479
2025-11-23 0.094233 0.159309 0.264694 0.448721 0.764533 1.288882 2.234832
2025-11-30 0.084808 0.149640 0.259233 0.459168 0.818128 1.441707 2.620577
2025-12-07 0.072599 0.133286 0.240045 0.442904 0.822768 1.511128 2.870688
2025-12-14 0.063700 0.121436 0.226921 0.435274 0.841378 1.607524 3.185321
2025-12-21 0.056168 0.110965 0.214736 0.427375 0.857917 1.701886 3.510610
2025-12-28 0.051940 0.106448 0.213555 0.441512 0.921580 1.900658 4.087379
2026-01-04 0.046655 0.099029 0.205636 0.440916 0.955437 2.045427 4.578414
2026-01-11 0.042554 0.093444 0.200636 0.445691 1.001584 2.223588 5.175379
2026-01-18 0.039536 0.089725 0.199014 0.457576 1.065417 2.450684 5.925719
2026-01-25 0.034818 0.081503 0.186383 0.442652 1.065694 2.534724 6.353808
2026-02-01 0.030228 0.072880 0.171598 0.420371 1.044963 2.566428 6.659688
2026-02-08 0.027101 0.067258 0.162960 0.411545 1.055708 2.675949 7.184553
2026-02-15 0.024265 0.061925 0.154238 0.401134 1.060769 2.772167 7.692698
2026-02-22 0.022811 0.059852 0.153234 0.410384 1.118692 3.014203 8.645389
2026-03-01 0.020327 0.054739 0.143797 0.395828 1.110167 3.078188 9.107276
2026-03-08 0.018483 0.051054 0.137550 0.388988 1.121966 3.199934 9.761670